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badgas

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badgas last won the day on September 30 2019

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About badgas

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  1. I just read up on this for someone who thought they were getting a bunch of free money that can be forgiven. This is how I understand it as described by a CPA 1) The SBA loan program which is supposedly forgivable They are calling it PPP for paycheck protection plan. This is basically a loan where a small business owner can look at their average monthly payroll from March 2019 through February 2020 and they can get a loan for up to two and a half months of their average payroll in order to keep paychecks going out. If they can prove that they used all that money to continue paying out weekly paychecks to their W-2 employees and even their 1099 contractors and their business still fails then that loan would be forgiven. It sounds like you will need to prove prior payroll and and also be audited in the end in order to have the loan forgiven. Otherwise everyone will just take the money spend it and go BK. I sure hope they make these like student loans where they can't be tossed into a BK otherwise the abuse and fraud will 10x worse.
  2. badgas

    Bitch Slap

    #SAVAGE I agree with @Romans9 brilliant plan No way they would miss that. Also no way that Steve would miss that ... 🤣
  3. Our President has been saying the same thing and thanking us for doing our part to stay home.
  4. I think you know what I'm talking about ? The constant doom and gloom, zero reporting on anything positive. Just the standard fear based BS they always spew. I get it, it is their job to keep everyone terrified and locked to the TV. And yes they are garbage.
  5. I think what people are doubting ( myself included ) is that this will kill half the population on earth. The media is wrong about 99% of the time so they are hard to trust. Very real and very sad but not the end of the world.
  6. We were own a zoom meeting the other night with a church group and they said their next door neighbors both have it. But directly ? NOPE I smell a rat in this thing for sure
  7. Real expert ? This guy has a LOT predictions that do not come true . A real false prophet who should NOT be trusted. "in 2012, Faber claimed that there was a "100% chance" of a global economic recession later that year or in early 2013.[17][18] Subsequently, the average world product grew steadily by 3.4% in each of 2012, 2013 and 2014, and 3.5% in 2015. In 2012, Faber predicted that the S&P 500 index would fall at least 20% within 6–9 months following the re-election of Barack Obama.[19] Subsequently, the S&P 500 index rose from a low of 1359.88 on November 16, 2012 to 1480.40 as of January 1, 2013, 1570.70 on April 1, 2013 (up 15% from the November low, 6 months after Faber's prediction), 1668.68 on July 1, 2013 (up 22% from the November 2012 low) and 1783.54 on November 1, 2013 (up 31%).[20] On January 14, 2015, Faber predicted that gold prices will rise by 30% in 2015.[22] Gold prices subsequently fell by 14% from $1234 on January 14, 2015 to $1060 on December 31, 2015.[23]" The guy has 21k youtube followers and that makes him and expert ???? funny stuff !! Social Media is a scary thing
  8. This " circus clown " you speak of was 100% on the money in the last correction. His advice is to not panic and market will recover. He says the media is playing on the emotions of people. His message is ....Get out of debt, live on less than you make , invest for retirement , give generously ! Is this a a bad plan ? I have lived out this plan for 15 years. Zero debt , kids thru college with NO debt , emergency fund in place. Paid for house and and a paid for rental. Granted my retirement accounts just took a 30% hit but I'm still ok. The only twist is that I'm a VTSAX guy low cost index funds for me . I don't adhere to the 1/4 each in his recommended mutual funds because of fees. Why is this a bad plan ? I'm not sure I will get a good answer from a guy who stood up for Bernie in another thread but I'm all ears and i'm really eager to learn. Seriously what is your sage investment advise ? I'm always looking for proven time tested ways to invest.
  9. OMG Just close this thread @Rockwood FTW!!!! That might be the funniest thing I've seen in years These people have lost their minds. I'm so happy that I just invest all the time buy, buy, buy ! I'm not a fan of market timing but there is portion of my monthy budget allocated for the market that is in for long game and I'm happy to just keep plowing $$ into this current sale. In 5-8 years I will be WAY ahead or we will be getting eaten by zombies or waiting in Bernies bread lines so the investment irrelevant. I will bet on American history and say that our investments will be up. Get your info from our history , not the fake news media. funny stuff
  10. My Dad was in Costco Sat morning at opening and said that everyone rushed to the back of store for toilet paper. He ended up asking an old Chinese guy why they are doing this. His answer was " Our Chinese radio station told us we will be locked in our homes for months " so that is why they are stocking up. Apparently diarrhea planning is part of bug out plan ?
  11. Lessons in Fear and Wealth from the Coronavirus As I write this, the biggest story in the entire world is a virus that is making its way around the planet, leaving a trail of sickness and death in its wake, while sending a much bigger shockwave of fear and uncertainty out front. Last week, the US stock market dropped 15% in just a few days, the most shocking correction since the 2008-2009 financial crisis (and the most interesting drop since the founding of this blog in 2011). I am sure you’ve been hearing, reading or watching plenty about it already, but the real question is, what should we do about it? The Scary Side Is this a screenshot from the fear-mongering TV news? Nope, just a moment from a classic zombie movie, although sometimes it is hard to tell the difference. The fear and doubt seems to be what the news stories have been emphasizing. The disease is highly contagious, and very sneaky. Each carrier seems to infect 2-3 additional people, which means exponential growth. And with an observed death rate of about 4% so far, it may be about 80 times more deadly than the common flu. On the news, we see rows of hastily installed hospital beds, people wearing paper face masks even here in our own country, empty supermarket shelves and shuttered factories and public venues. And we are reminded that we ain’t seen nothing yet, because with mild symptoms that can hide for days, most cases are going unreported and the disease is pumping its toxic tentacles through the arteries of our economy, plotting its attack while we are left POWERLESS UNTIL THE RIOTS IN THE STREET START AND PEOPLE ARE SMASHING THROUGH OUR WINDOWS TO TAKE OUR LAST FEW CANS OF BEANS AFTER WE RUN OUT OF AMMO IN OUR SHOTGUNS. Some people are just prone to this type of thinking, and I even have a few in my own life. They have warned me to gather “at least a few months worth” of nonperishable food in my pantry and make sure I have a generator and plenty of fuel, at the very least. And to reconsider my stance of not keeping any guns in the house. The Not-So-Scary Side I went out on the town at the peak of the scare. The reality is different from the news headlines. As I write this on March 2nd, there have been about 90,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19. And while the number is still growing rapidly, at the moment it is still a tiny number, about one thousandth of a percent of the world’s population. So even if it multiplies 100-fold, it would be a tenth of one percent. And out of these 90,000 people, about half are already recovered and have moved on with their lives. And the vast majority of the remaining ill, and all those who are so far undetected, and those who are yet to get infected, will also recover. Past and current status of the outbreak. But do we have any idea how bad it will get, before it gets better? As it turns out, we do. But first, some perspective. Here are this year’s numbers for the tried-and-true traditional flu for the 2019 flu season in the US alone (and remember the USA is only four percent of the world population): Wow, 32-45 million cases of the flu already, and tens of thousands of deaths. Even I had no idea it was that serious, and yet the flu is something I don’t even worry about – ever! Even scarier: every year, about 2.8 million people die in the US alone, and a full 70% of these deaths (over two million people per year) are caused by “lifestyle factors”, which to put it plainly means ignoring Mr. Money Mustache’s advice about bikes, barbells and salads every day. So if we start with the common flu, which is surprisingly scary, choosing car-based transportation and TV-based entertainment and consuming processed high-carbohydrate food and soft drinks should feel at least an additional hundred times scarier than that. But do you feel the appropriate ratios of fear in these two situations? And a much smaller amount of fear about the Coronavirus? Probably not, because we humans generally suck at putting numbers, statistics and probabilities into perspective. We Have Been Here Before In my lifetime alone, we have seen the rise and decline of quite a list of worldwide health scares, each of which was covered in the news with similar intensity to what we see today. AIDS, Ebola, SARS, Bird Flu, and the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic, also known as H1N1. That one was particularly serious in retrospect, having infected between 11-21% of the world’s population and taking the lives of about 500,000. Yet here we are, with that fearful event gone from the rearview mirror and a global economy that is far richer than it has ever been. Which is exactly what we will eventually be saying about the present moment in time, from our vantage point in the even more prosperous future. And Math Can Help Create Perspective Contagious diseases don’t just grow forever until everybody is dead. They follow an S-curve, like this recent prediction for Covid-19’s spread. It currently estimates that we may see things flatten out fairly soon, but more importantly it continually updates to new information and makes an educated guess – a great strategy for dealing with unknowns in life in general. One mathematical model that a researcher is updating each day – image source. On the other hand, some estimates are more pessimistic. Disease modelers at Northeastern University uses different assumptions to predict between 550,000 and 4 million cases worldwide*, before we reach the flat top of our “S”. But that’s still only a twentieth of one percent of the world’s population who would even get the disease, and then a further 96-98% of those would recover. As a final source of information, when it comes to world health issues I always like to see what Bill Gates has to say. And sure enough, he written this great opinion piece in a medical journal. His main point? The damage done by a virus really depends on how well our governments respond to it. Lots of caution and a quick response leads to much better results. So there’s still a lot of uncertainty. But when faced with a lack of information, we can choose one of two options on where to learn more: Good looking news anchors with fake tans and no scientific background, who make more money if they generate more viewership hours and advertising revenue, which is proven to multiply if they can cause their viewers to experience fear, or Scientists and mathematicians who study this stuff for a living, and use incoming data to make a series of continually refined predictions. As Mustachians, we get our information from scientists rather than news anchors and politicians, and then we choose a course of action based on what is in our circle of control. In the case of the Coronavirus, I would say that means taking the following steps: Continue the usual program of living a healthy life. Just the incredibly simple steps of cutting cars, sugar and television out of your life as much as possible will virtually eliminate the 70% fatality risk factor of being inactive and unfit – and yet only a tiny percentage of people – even those lucky enough to still have fully able bodies – actually follow this advice. On top of that, this strategy will also greatly boost your immunity to Covid-19, and decrease your chance of serious illness or death if you do catch it. Don’t try to out-guess the stock market. Just celebrate the fact that we have a temporary sale on stocks. While the endless stream of meaningless market commentary every day means absolutely nothing, one fact remains indisputable: stocks you buy today at a 15% discount from their peak, will be 15% more profitable for you over your lifetime. And finally, still important but statistically less urgent is taking actual steps related to dodging this and other viral illnesses. Wash your hands a few times a day and avoid unnecessary large gatherings of people in close quarters, until the health organizations tell us we are in the clear. Guns and ammo and a bunker full of canned beans not required. * a really interesting quote from that same article about the size of the uncertainty around diseases:” In the autumn of 2014, modelers at CDC projected that the Ebola outbreak in West Africa could reach 550,000 to 1.4 million cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone by late January if nothing changed. As it happened, heroic efforts to isolate patients, trace contacts, and stop unsafe burial practices kept the number of cases to 28,600 (and 11,325 deaths). “

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