Fireballsocal

8 hours ago, Rockwood said:

Actually put to use by man, sure, but they're excluding runoff into the ocean we don't even attempt to store or utilize:

 

Which is the majority of water use in California.  Eventually, the grownups need to ask if leaving rivers completely wild all the way up into the mountains is worth continuing to ignore our water crisis.

With the rivers around me that are dry such as the santa ana and the Owens, I'd kinda like what we have left to stay the way they are. There used to be sturgeon in the Santa Ana river. Now, just a trickle. 

Where aren't they not permitting house building due to water? 15,600 are planned in the high desert 30 miles North of me in one community. Plenty of other smaller tracts in construction. 1900 homes in the Disney community going in Rancho Mirage. My beef with the water crisis here in Ca. is that more and more homes (Tax revenue) keep going in but we keep having to cut back on water. 

Major automotive parts warehouse here. A building big enough that we supply other warehouses, not dealer direct. Our 750,000 sqft building was just about at 50% of capacity when normal is between 96% and 98%. We have built up to around 60% in the last month and are working extremely hard to get back to normal. Management is saying we will be back to normal in Sept. but I'm not holding my breath. 

Quantitative easing. 

9 hours ago, L.R.S. said:

Had a friend go through this recently with a lot of medical bills and some credit card debt. He owned a house. Had to choose between Chapter 11 or Chapter 13. Chapter 11 eliminates all debt and you start fresh. He choose Chapter 13 which stops all interest, any debtor can file asking to be repaid. Fortunately most medical companies don't file, which was the majority of his debt. Once all debt was filed the court trustee calculated the monthly payment for 5 years (I think?). His payment was around $1600, much less than he was paying with interest for all his debt.

He paid on this for just over 3 years and got it down from $95k to $40k. He saved up enough money and made a lump sum payment and the bankruptcy was discharged. Good for him. 

Now he needs to rebuild his credit so he can refi his home and possibly buy a new car. But he has no credit. Bankruptcy was discharged, his mortgage was paid on time every month for 3 years, he has no credit cards or car payments. Regardless no one would give him credit.

He was actually told by a lender that he should have filed Chapter 11 and just wiped the slate clean. He felt he was doing the 'right thing' by repaying most of the debt with Chapter 13. Live and learn. 

Sounds like he needs a secured credit card. He deposits $500 or however much with the bank and they give him a credit card with that much credit. It's a quick way to start rebuilding credit. 

3 hours ago, TheLatinLover said:

When I’m 65 because I’m sure as hell never having a mangina.

Why the eff is the seat so low? 

I don't see a comparable trailer being built cheaper in Ca. verses Az. There has to be somewhere they are cutting corners. Even the smaller ram doesn't make sense. What would wholesale difference on that be? $10?

Not to second guess you but have you done a ride that long recently? That's a hell of a lot of miles to put down on a bike. 

If you have time to wait, some big costco boxes of baking soda spread liberally on the floor. It absorbs odors pretty well if it has time to work. I bought a beautiful pecan bedroom set that was owned by smokers and I put a layer of baking soda in all of the drawers and let the furniture sit for over a month. The baking soda did the trick but took some time. 

5 hours ago, JDMeister said:

Just some anecdotal info. I had a hard folding tonneau on my last tacoma. It was a factory cover for the 5' bed. It was heavy! I folded it open and closed often and hated how heavy it was. It was removable but heavy enough that 2 people really should have been used. My current tacoma has the same tri fold design but is a soft cover and is way lighter. It's just easier to use everywhere. It can't be walked on but I don't need it to be. 

Re: Toyota. I would pass on a new 2022 Tundra. It's an entirely new truck and has some bugs to work out. There has already been a turbo issue that while easily resolvable, has no parts in the pipeline to repair. I expect a few more small issues to crop up as miles accrue. Now a 2021 or earlier Tundra would make a great truck if you need it to do truck stuff. As mentioned, it isn't the best at anything aside from maybe resale and reliability. Mileage is horrible, the engine is great as is the transmission. Rides like a truck. I wish they had factory lockers but the 2022 is the first Tundra to get an E-locker. It sounds like you need to be patient for a raptor. 

5 hours ago, Squatcher said:

FYI  top of the line Sherwin williams  semi gloss is great paint to use on the outside.  Over 5 years old and still looks new in AZ sun

 

Sherwin Williams Emerald? I used that on my house and it was expensive as frigg. 

No way that's a $17,500 car today. 

Are they rectangular or radiused? Your local glass guys should be able to cut what you need. 

8 hours ago, Kraut_n_Rice said:

Nobody has tied there generator into a natural gas supply at their house?

My parents bought through costco and their vendor installed a generac, not sure on the kv rating. The install price was outrageous, as much as the generator, but that was a full hands off operation. The installer poured a slab, tied into the panel and natural gas line, delivered and hooked up the generator and transfer switch, etc. Aside from a 12v starter battery going bad, it has been great though a little loud. They live in an area where edison started shutting off the power every time the wind blows and it blows a lot. My only concern with natural gas is a disaster situation like an earthquake where the natural gas is shut off due to leaks or "An abundance of safety". I figure gasoline will be available in that situation in some form. 

Those were damn good trailer brakes!

I had a set of these and loved em. Someone is gonna make out like a bandit. 

4 minutes ago, marknkidz said:

No problem...  

you are CORRECT!!! unfortunately im living by the Motto "happy wife, happy life"  

 

You're at that spectacular time in your life when you are able to live as you would like and not as you can afford to. You're doing something right that's for sure! While I'd assume there are more builders/buyers like you, I hope you all are a small percentage and get it out of your system so us small time guys can get in on a home at some point. 

3 hours ago, marknkidz said:

im currently building a cabin in big bear.... 2000 sq. ft. plus garage. Its costing about $400 per sq. ft.

Not including land, and SOLAR which is now mandatory, or any permits and retaining walls..

May I pick your brain on this a bit? $800K can turn into a cool million after the infrastructure is in. Plus the land. Is there potential for this 2000 sqft cabin to sell for a profit after that? I know Big Bear is higher to buy used per sqft and land is a great part of that but the numbers don't make sense to me. 

While I see the negative comments and agree they have merit, I want to add some counterpoints. We saw all this in 06, the buildup to the housing crash in 08-09. The realtors all said they weren't making any more land and prices would never come back down. The house I ended up buying was worth approximately $390K in 06. I paid $165K for it 4 years later in 2010. Sure, the subprime market isn't what it used to be but there are still liar loans and seconds out there. There are still people buying way to much house that they can't afford and will lose and there will be more inventory dropping on the market at some point. There is the potential for many people to lose their jobs and ability to pay for that nice shiny new home. Consumer debt has risen to a record 15.6T at the end of 2021. 

  Interest rates will be the biggest driver in the short time I feel.  I checked today and the 30 year fixed is at 4.7%, 2 full points up from where it was last year. That's a $600 change per month on a $500K mortgage. Significant. The FED is raising fed funds rates 7 times. While some of the raises may be priced in to the current rate, I don't think a 7% or 8% 30 year rate is out of the realm of possibility. At 8%, that same 500K loan jumped up $1600 a month from 2.7%. 

  As far as institutional buyers, they need to make a return on investment. I think we will see more follow Zillows lead after the return just isn't there. Home prices have already become stretched so tight I think we will see a breaking point. I think it's already happened. This is purely speculation on my part so don't follow me for advice. There are so many variables and unknowns that anything could happen. I've gambled my nice quiet and comfortable 3 bedroom on it though, and this apartment sucks. 

I'm in the market for land myself in San Bernardino county. I've even submitted an offer that was laughed at. Anyway, I have seen construction costs between $250 and $500 a square foot. Good luck on anyone taking your money though unless you are building a mansion. Anyone that can swing a hammer (Boy, that dates me) has more work than they can do in a month of Sundays. They are cherry picking the most lucrative jobs. I was planning on a modular or manufactured home. Prices on those have nearly doubled in the last year. When looking at land, keep in mind your construction costs. The land I bid on was asking $399K. I offered $100K which I thought was fairly close to market value. It sold in 4 months for $299K. Running the numbers, $299K plus the low of $250 per sqft construction cost gives a final cost of $800K for a 2000sqft house before any landscaping, concrete work, etc. The completed house wouldn't be worth that much where I am looking. At the high figure of $500 per sqft, the final value would be $1.3 million. The numbers just don't work unless the land is closer to market value. I have a feeling that the people who bought the land I bid on haven't thought that far ahead and will sit on or take a loss on the land. 

Mortgage interest rates have risen dramatically already just on the Feds signal that they will raise the federal fund rate. With no action from the fed, rates on 30 year fixed mortgages are almost 2% over what they were last year. 2.7% to 4.6% (As of today). Tomorrow, the Fed is expected to announce rate increases though most financial types believe that raise is already priced in to mortgage rates. This interest rate raise on home mortgages will slow down home sales for the average home buyer but there are some other factors.

  There is a record low inventory of homes for sale till you get up well above median prices. This means that although there are fewer potential buyers, there are less homes available for those buyers so competition is still stiff. Most people who considered selling did so already, not wanting to miss out on the "top" of the market. I am one of those sellers. 

  Institutional home buyers (Blackrock, zillow, etc.) have billions in cash and don't need to worry about interest rates as they don't borrow. The percentage of institutional buyers has also risen dramatically. I've seen one article state that in the third quarter of 2021, 51% of homes sold in Ca. went to these buyers. 

  Basically, I don't believe anyone can call the market. If the numbers make sense, then buy. Otherwise, rent. I sold my house last June. My plan is to rent this shithole of an apartment close to work and continue with my schooling while I wait for home prices to drop.  I walked away with decent equity and hope to be able to buy either a bare acre of land to put a new manufactured home on or to buy a fixer upper already situated on land in the area I want (Still in Ca.). I estimated that once I sold the house, I would have to wait 4-5 years for prices to drop and it is still looking like that is a fair estimate. There is no knowing what the Gov. will do though. If raising interest rates throws us into a depression and rates are reversed back to record lows, then we may see home prices stay elevated. If we enter into a war, there is potential to lose my job and ability to qualify for a mortgage. If it keeps getting hotter and dryer, I may not want to continue living in Ca. though I love it here. 

I thought I saw him once but it turned out to be a mop. 

Stay home. Potentially, you will see some epic riding on sand so smooth, most people will only rarely experience it. The wind is absolutely miserable though so if it is blowing as much as forecasted, no one is going to be happy. It's not a good weekend for your first trip out. Were you tempted to go out for a ride in the wind, you could easily drive right off a dune into a 50 foot drop off because the sand is getting blown off the top of a dune sideways. The dune looks like it continues on till you fall through. I actually enjoy riding in the super windy conditions but I've been going out for 20 years and completely change my riding style from normal to more of a tourist. In no hurry, looking at this, that, and the other, etc.